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07/08/2001
As combines clear winter barleys across the country, and some wheat is cut in the south, traders report that yields, although below average, are not as bad as feared earlier in the season. However, it is certain that the 2001 cereal harvest will be the smallest for many years, following the extremely wet conditions last autumn and spring that disrupted farmers cropping plans and drastically cut the planted area.
Figures from the Home-Grown Cereals Authority (HGCA) confirm that wheat plantings are down by 19% at 1.68m ha, which, assuming a yield running 5% below trend could produce a crop of 13m tonnes, compared with the 16.7m tonnes grown in 2000. Even this is at the high end of trade estimates, some of which are below 11m tonnes. Total UK cereals production is forecast to be 20% down, at 20m tonnes, even allowing for a rise in spring barley. Set aside is almost certainly up significantly - some say at least double - but difficult to quantify before the government releases IACS data later in the year.
There are likely to be several knock-on effects of the lowest crop since 1982:-
• 20-25% less grain on the domestic market, precipitating "a bunfight" among traders for the crop, in the words of one large company
• no significant export volume (unless sterling weakens appreciably), compared with the normal 3-4m tonnes of UK cereal exports. While there may be scope for an increased import volume, it is hard to see port silos and handling facilities being used to capacity this year.
• unprecedented pressure on the seedsmen. With record winter wheat area of 2.2 -2.3 mha forecast for harvest 2002, and farmers likely to make an early start to cover the extra ground and avoid the problems experienced last year, dressing plants will be hard pressed to turn round seed lots in time. Furthermore, the seed area is down in line with the crop size, so supplies of popular varieties will be tight. Farmers are advised to place their orders early.
An added factor is that for the first time, the 90% of UK animal feed compounders working to the UFAS standard will require all feed cereals delivered to their mills to be farm assured. This leaves little realistic market for non-assured grain, but if supplies are as short, could lead to problems sourcing sufficient assured feed grains.
Much now depends on the weather. The July sunshine brought crops on significantly, but needs to be maintained, with judicious showers, to protect the quality of crops in the field.
07/07/2001
It is now over a month since Margaret Beckett was appointed to lead DEFRA, the ministry formerly known as MAFF, and unofficially tagged DEFAID or even DEFROW by the industry.
There are mixed signals emerging as to her stance so far. Initial signs were not encouraging. The fact that agriculture was not mentioned in the new department's title was seen as alarming by some, and the mission to "spearhead a major drive on green issues and the countryside" alarmed even more. Even senior civil servants transferred in to the new structure were uncertain of their DEFRA role and remit.
There have been encouraging signs too, that Mrs Beckett will speak out in support of the industry. At he first Farm Council meeting in Brussels, the minister pressed for fishmeal to be removed from the list of proteins banned by the EU for ruminant use, since there is no scientific reason for it to be included. She won a review, but only when a validated test to distinguish between animal and fish protein is available. Sadly, DEFRA is now to implement the ban in the UK, which will effectively end the production of ruminant and non-ruminant feeds in the same feed mill.
Mrs Beckett also swatted aside a Soil Association lobby given ample national media time to press its case for a vaccination policy to combat foot and mouth. She appeared well-briefed and defended the slaughter policy, saying the majority of farmers supported it despite the effect on their livelihoods and industry, and questioning whether vaccination was the panacea it was claimed to be: "vaccination is not an easy answer - there are no easy answers."
So two small steps forward and one back. Harder tests are looming with the shape of the promised inquiry into FMD - the Government would like a speedy review of the crisis, but there is a growing lobby for a full-scale public inquiry. DEFRA also has to come up with a realistic strategy for the recovery and future development of the agricultural sector.
Her predecessor Nick Brown earned a reputation for listening sympathetically to the industry's problems, but taking little useful action. Margaret Beckett now has to act decisively and quickly to lead agriculture out of its present mess.